Whether you’re a homeowner, in the market to buy or sell, a realtor, or just have an interest in the Real Estate Market, we’re all pretty much asking the same questions - what is going to happen to the market during this shutdown? Let’s take a look for London, ON.
Numbers for March
If you look at these numbers, it's really just been a banner month, so to speak. The average sales price is up by over 10% compared to the same time last year. The number of sales is up almost by 7% again compared to the same time last year. If you just look at the stats, then everything looks like March was an amazing month, and you would almost not even know, that in the midst of it, the real estate market & the economy got shut down. Taking into consideration the last two weeks of March, they were really fractions of what they typically would be, but despite the shutdown it was still a very very strong month. In fact, it was the strongest March we've seen in the past 10 years with the exception of 2017.
The spring market was really off to a rocking start and then…
The brakes got hit. Hard. There are still houses that are still being actively listed and actively sold - for the number of houses that are being listed, we're seeing about two thirds of that in the number of sales. There's still very much activity going on in the market but it is probably about a third of what we would expect to see this time of year. In the area that I watch, typically there would be about 100 homes listed a day. Today, when I checked there was about 36 properties that have listed and 24 that had sold. You look at those numbers and you can see that there's still activity there.
Open Houses in Ontario: ILLEGAL
Open houses in Ontario have been deemed illegal at this point. If you do not need to move then I do not think you should be out there actively shopping, unless you are very comfortable with looking at houses online and buying a house, either virtually seeing it, or not seeing it at all. Most people still want to walk through a home before they purchase it, though.
There's lots of people that are putting their house search on hold. I've had clients who have bought a property, and now they're just waiting to close with the questions of "What's gonna happen to the value of my home when I close on it in a few weeks or a few months?" "Is it going to be worth the same amount of money?" And the reality is, I just don't know. And nobody really knows, at this point. The real estate market and the economy are not functioning, essentially. It's not even like we've hit a recession, it's like we've just stopped.
Are we going to see lower home prices in London?
I think we may. The properties that are listed today are not adjusting their prices - there's no reduction in price. They're still very much at full market value and I think there's still properties out there that are selling very quickly for very close to asking price. Whether we're going to continue to see that once things come back to normal, even if we don't and things slow down, then we will see a compression in prices. But, is it going to be huge? I don't think so. London is an affordable city to live in. It’s spent so much time catching up to all the other cities, and is very affordable for its size and for all the amenities that it offers.
Uncharted Territory
This is unique. It's very much uncharted territory and it's difficult to make predictions. Don't look to just the numbers. The numbers are good to see and it gives you a bit of an idea of what happened, but at the same time, there's a lot more nuance to it, especially in situations like this. The real estate market and the economy could be shut down for three months, it could be shut down for six months, we just don't know yet. My hope would be that when things start up again, that we really kick things back off. With this strong base in our economy that we have, with the government sector that fuels a lot of our employment, and the diversity of our economy here in London, I think there's a good chance that we could come out of this relatively strong compared to other cities.
Questions? Thoughts? Ask!
If you have questions about the real estate market as it relates to this COVID-19 situation or in general, then please do ask. Let me know in the comments or send me a message with the button below. I would be happy to answer. Stay safe, stay indoors, and only going out when you need to. Hopefully, we will all get to chat sooner rather than later.